The Manhattan Project story everyone quotes is probably apocryphal, and it still embarrasses the AI industry. Pearl Buck's 1959 interview claimed Arthur Compton set a three in a million threshold for igniting the atmosphere before the Trinity test; Hans Bethe called it a complete misunderstanding. But even the legend describes a stopping rule. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei estimates a 10 to 25 percent chance of civilizational catastrophe, and no frontier AI lab publishes odds at which it would halt
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The Manhattan Project story everyone quotes is probably apocryphal, and it still embarrasses the AI industry. Pearl Buck's 1959 interview claimed Arthur Compton set a three in a million threshold for igniting the atmosphere before the Trinity test; Hans Bethe called it a complete misunderstanding. But even the legend describes a stopping rule. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei estimates a 10 to 25 percent chance of civilizational catastrophe, and no frontier AI lab publishes odds at which it would halt
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