Karen Mills was elected Chair of the NBER’s Board of Directors, and Douglas Peterson was elected Vice Chair, at the board’s ...

The Opportunity Zone (OZ) program, created under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, represents one of the largest place-based economic development initiatives in US history. It offers substantial capital ...

This paper uses the history of private money to assess the conditions under which stablecoins could function safely at scale and what their growth may imply for U.S. monetary power. Historical systems ...

We measure how artificial intelligence (AI) affects the economy through its impact on software engineering productivity. We use information from financial markets to develop a forward-looking measure ...

This study examines a housing program that created affordable infill developments on formerly vacant, abandoned, or disinvested properties in Savannah, Georgia. Savannah is a major economic hub ...

We explore the historical link between populist regimes, fiscal monetization, and inflation, and how these links affect monetary policy in the 21st century. Using data for a large set of advanced ...

We argue this distinctive structure—bilateral rollover risk without default risk—disciplines recipient countries' borrowing on international markets. In a quantitative long-term sovereign debt model, ...

Yet evidence shows that households hold heterogeneous subjective models---distinct beliefs about how macroeconomic variables interact. As a result, identical shocks or policies may elicit different ...

We consider official and alternative data sources for measuring and projecting the role of U.S. manufacturing in the global semiconductor manufacturing industry. We find that the government sources we ...

We study how aggregate financial conditions shape firm insurance and, through it, labor income risk. In a directed search model with dynamic wage contracts and two-sided limited commitment, firm ...

We study optimal tariffs in a model consistent with these facts. Firms pay a fixed cost to import and charge markups that increase with size. Market power implies that importers are too few and too ...

This paper documents large indirect mortality impacts of climate change. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1°C of warming increases annual mortality by 2.5 deaths per ...