Karen Mills was elected Chair of the NBER’s Board of Directors, and Douglas Peterson was elected Vice Chair, at the board’s ...

Post-pandemic inflation raised fears that U.S. monetary tightening would trigger a repeat of the 1982 sudden stop in capital flows to emerging economies. Yet as of 2026 no global recession has ...

We measure how artificial intelligence (AI) affects the economy through its impact on software engineering productivity. We use information from financial markets to develop a forward-looking measure ...

This study examines a housing program that created affordable infill developments on formerly vacant, abandoned, or disinvested properties in Savannah, Georgia. Savannah is a major economic hub ...

This paper uses the history of private money to assess the conditions under which stablecoins could function safely at scale and what their growth may imply for U.S. monetary power. Historical systems ...

Yet evidence shows that households hold heterogeneous subjective models---distinct beliefs about how macroeconomic variables interact. As a result, identical shocks or policies may elicit different ...

We consider official and alternative data sources for measuring and projecting the role of U.S. manufacturing in the global semiconductor manufacturing industry. We find that the government sources we ...

We study optimal tariffs in a model consistent with these facts. Firms pay a fixed cost to import and charge markups that increase with size. Market power implies that importers are too few and too ...

This paper documents large indirect mortality impacts of climate change. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1°C of warming increases annual mortality by 2.5 deaths per ...

We investigate how limiting interest deductibility under the 2017 TCJA shapes corporate innovation. Using alternative identification strategies, we show that, relative to unaffected firms, affected ...

This paper examines innovation outcomes before and after 1,200 startup acquisitions by eight major technology firms. Linking patent and workforce data to these deals, we document four main findings.

We explore the historical link between populist regimes, fiscal monetization, and inflation, and how these links affect monetary policy in the 21st century. Using data for a large set of advanced ...