Karen Mills was elected Chair of the NBER’s Board of Directors, and Douglas Peterson was elected Vice Chair, at the board’s ...

We study the macroeconomic and trade-policy implications of disruptions to U.S.-bound shipping routes. Standard models treat them as iceberg-cost shocks, conflating the shock with the response to it.

This study examines a housing program that created affordable infill developments on formerly vacant, abandoned, or disinvested properties in Savannah, Georgia. Savannah is a major economic hub ...

We measure how artificial intelligence (AI) affects the economy through its impact on software engineering productivity. We use information from financial markets to develop a forward-looking measure ...

Yet evidence shows that households hold heterogeneous subjective models---distinct beliefs about how macroeconomic variables interact. As a result, identical shocks or policies may elicit different ...

We study optimal tariffs in a model consistent with these facts. Firms pay a fixed cost to import and charge markups that increase with size. Market power implies that importers are too few and too ...

This paper documents large indirect mortality impacts of climate change. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1°C of warming increases annual mortality by 2.5 deaths per ...

Development accounting is the search for proximate sources of cross-country income differences. This article describes how knowledge in this field has evolved over the two decades since the ...

How much liability should AI providers bear when their services enable both attack and defence? Liability can improve welfare while increasing harm. Providers sell a common input to productive users, ...

This paper studies the effects of population growth on welfare in an OLG model, in which lower population growth raises output per worker but also reduces the ratio of workers to retirees. Under ...

What caused the historically unique volatility in American homicides since 2019, driven by gun homicides? While there is no shortage of candidate explanations, a coherent understanding has been ...