Should defendants be convicted based on merely statistical evidence? To what extent are individuals responsible for group harms? Can voting in a non-swing state be justified? Are cosmological theories ...

Epistemic decision theory integrates formal models of rational belief with the processes of decision‐making under uncertainty. It addresses how agents should revise their credences in light of new and ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Bryce Hoffman writes about leadership, strategy, and decision making. The availability heuristic (or availability bias) refers to ...

Do you use these mental models for efficient decision-making in your daily life? If not, you’re missing out on the opportunity to make more thoughtful and informed choices. Mental models are cognitive ...

Balancing data-driven insights with intuition is crucial for effective decision-making, allowing entrepreneurs to see beyond the numbers and make connections that foster innovative solutions. While ...

Discover how multivariate models use multiple variables for investment forecasting, risk analysis, and decision-making in ...